OK, that's a lot to unpack, fortunately you are the type that likes to tinker. I have several comments that maybe won't be in the best of order.
Now that you are (correctly) focusing on the saltwater-series props, forget about your old prop data. The definitive document is the Yamaha Performance Bulletin. No way is some online prop selector going to give you info like that. Generally, those bulletins are gold as the combinations are not happenstance. From what I've seen and used, Yamaha only publishes about the best anyone can expect from non-custom products. Your current task (should you chose to accept it) is to make what should be a small pitch adjustment (if any) from the test boat to yours. But first consider this: on a pontoon similar to yours that 15p held your motor to 5900 RPM WOT (if memory serves). Ponder that for a moment.
No more than a pitch correction of 1 or 2 inches seems reasonable. I think you correctly speculate that a saltwater 19p may be too much (put the new prop next to your old one, expect an eyeopener). However since you are a professed tinkerer, here's a plan that MAY help. Raise the motor incrementally. With that and as the pontoon lifts with speed, you MIGHT hit a point where induced prop ventilation allows you to pull a 19p into the upper part of the desired RPM band without unloading or using some wildass trim (where you want to be, right?). Operating that way may cause other problems, but we'er only tinkering...
BTW: consider another general reference point: IF some free spirit were to find a way to hang an additional 250 HP motor on the test boat, ball park props would be ~4" "taller". Of course the resulting new speed regime might call for something other than the saltwater-series prop (Reliance?).
OK, that said, indulge me for a moment. You clearly like and value mathematical analysis...me too. However, keep in mind that mathematics are merely descriptive. Mathematics do not prove anything. Mathematics do not explain anything. That's a tough pill to swallow for some people, but if problem solving includes that understanding the results will be better. "Ground-Truthing" through actual application/observation is the path to nirvana, thus the value of reliable performance bulletins. Otherwise it's easy to make mathematical projections that would have an ancient alien theorist blushing. Yes, mathematics is the language of science. However, just like any other language, sometimes what is said is gibberish.